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SECTION 2: E QUILIBRIUM introduction Purpose : Learn how to set effective goals and how to shift relationships to shift a system. How to use this section : Read this before you analyze stakeholders or set an aim or objectives. We understand our current position and the system we are in. Now, where do we go from here? For thousands of years, humans have looked to the stars to understand their place in the world and navigate from one place to another. They give us meaning, understanding and equilibrium. Similarly, we use a star chart to map which relationships power the system and how to consider these in setting long-term and short-term goals. Systems do not die: A Guiding Star and Near Star act like an aim and objective for a system, serving as its compass. A system can afford to lose sight of its Near Star for a while, but when a system loses sight of its Guiding Star, it can lose its equilibrium and crash. Relationships are power: We know more stories about star constellations than individual stars because power and meaning lie in relationships, not individuals. In this Chapter, we learn how to identify and focus on the most influential relationships in a system through Relationship Constellations. Solidarity is a verb: It is said that history is written by the victors. Those who win are proactive, collaborative, and determined. Here, we learn how to apply our own force to ensure justice, particularly for those whose exclusions are compounded by multiple, overlapping, oppressions at once. Force begets resistance: It is easy to overlook the emergent people and groups within a system that could help us make change happen. Shooting stars can be destructive in space but are a sign of good luck in some cultures. Working with shooting stars by collaborating across movements and beyond can significantly help shift systems. Loops can be unlocked: The loops of stars and planets power the relationships among them. Among those loops is one deep loop that drives the whole system. Only by collaborating to alter this deep loop can we shift a system. section summary Key Takeaway Identify what keeps the system in balance, and how you can work with other resistance across the system to give it better health. Key Questions Why does the system stay balanced? What are its Guiding Star and North Star does the system have to be aligned with? What alternative stars could you establish for the system? Who are the key relationships that keep the system aligned with its Guiding Star and North Star? Where are others of different and intersecting identities impacted by the system? How could you work with others impacted and resisting the system already? What is the deep loop at the core of the system that keeps it functioning? How could you replace that deep loop with something that benefits people and planet? Key Tool(s) Relationship Constellations chart.

CHAPTERS for those who prefer a chronological approach to learning. SECTION 1: SYSTEM SECTION 2: EQUILIBRIUM INTRODUCTION INTRODUCING S.E.N.S.E. INTRODUCTION CHAPTER 5: Systems do not die CHAPTER 1: We live in systems CHAPTER 6: Relationships are power CHAPTER 2: The simplicity of complexity CHAPTER 3: Levels are levers CHAPTER 4: Autonomy is a myth CHAPTER 7: Solidarity is a verb CHAPTER 8: Force begets resistance CHAPTER 9: Loops can be unlocked SECTION 3: NAVIGATION SECTION 4: STORMS INTRODUCTION INTRODUCTION CHAPTER 10: Narrative is water CHAPTER 17: Storms are stories CHAPTER 11: Needs are motives CHAPTER 12: Communities are currents CHAPTER 13: The messenger is the message CHAPTER 14: Values are bedrock CHAPTER 18: Flexibility is perseverance CHAPTER 19: Foresight is 20:20 CHAPTER 20: Wrestling with trolls CHAPTER 21: Change is constant CHAPTER 15: Decisions are learned CHAPTER 16: Emotion is oxygen SECTION 5: ENERGY INTRODUCTION CHAPTER 22: Reflection is action CHAPTER 23: Truth is human-shaped CHAPTER 24: Seeds are fruit CHAPTER 25: Endings are beginnings CONCLUSION

SECTION 1: E NERGY CHAPTER 24 - SEEDS ARE FRUIT Jump forward and backward in time to ensure you’re acting for the long term. Many Indigenous communities across North America use “seven generations thinking” to make decisions. They think about how their actions today will affect the next seven generations of people. “In our every deliberation, we must consider the impact of our decisions on the next seven generations.”― Iroquois Proverb “To use an agricultural metaphor, the current system [of movements attempting to build narrative power for justice] is focused on generating and cascading seeds of knowledge, but overlooking the soil where it is hoped that this will flourish.” - Global Narrative Hiv e “We can’t build what we can’t imagine, so it is imperative for us to create spaces that allow us to infinitely stretch our understanding of what’s possible.” - Walidah Imarisha tool: human layers (with thanks to the longtime project) Step 1: As a group, stand in a large circle 12 feet across, in a room or outside in a good amount of space. Close your eyes and feel your feet on the ground. Breathe deeply. Step 2: Think of someone you love or admire of your grandparents’ age. Focus on what it is in them that evokes warmth in you. It could be their smile, something that made them laugh, their hands, anything. Step 3: Take one step behind where you are and imagine being with that person 40 years in the past. How is that same quality that evoked warmth in you? Step 4: Take another step back and imagine being with that person another 30 years in the past, at their ninth birthday party. Where are you? Take a look out the window - what is it like? How are people behaving? Step 5: Now return to the spot you started in and imagine a small person (child, grandchild, niece) who you love or admire, and focus on what it is that evokes warmth in you. Step 6: Step forward one step and imagine being with that person 40 years in the future. Step 7: Step forward one step again and imagine you are at their 90th birthday party. The guests toast you. What are they choosing to toast you for? Step 8: Step back to the place you started in and take two deep breaths, opening your eyes again. You’ve just time traveled almost 200 years. Share with the group how you feel. What’s coming up for you? tool: changing spectacles (with thanks to the longtime project) Step 1: Go back to your fire chart from Chapter 20. Take 2 sets of Post-Its, each in a different color. Ask the group to write down on the different colors, and place on the chart both positive and negative examples of: Long-termism in the system Norms, relationships, narratives, processes and outputs that are driving short term results Step 2: As a group, discuss how the most critical changes to the system are connected to long-termism and short-termism , and to different stakeholders and efforts that you and others you’ve consulted, have identified. Could you focus your efforts on strengthening or weakening those efforts with the greatest long-term effects? Step 3: Return to your overall plan. What changes might you make to your Guiding Star, Near Star, or to your targeting in order to have these greater long-term effects? tool: future ripples (with thanks to the longtime project) Part 1: Go back to your fire chart. In your group, allocate to individuals in your group key stakeholder relationships (not individuals) in the system. These could be human or non-human, e.g. a river with connected ecosystems / a child and their mother in an affected community, the President and the World Bank. Part 2: Ask them to consider the implications of your updated plans in terms of: Time: What might their needs be in 5, 20, 50 years time? How might your campaign affect them? Assumptions: What assumptions about these stakeholders are we making in our plan? Why might these stakeholders question them? Practicalities: What constructs do the stakeholders need to know in order to do what we want them to do? How might this stakeholder themselves approach this differently? Part 3: What longtime changes in focus do you need to make to your plan to future proof it? Think of these areas: Guiding Star and Near Star Critical relationships and deep loop Target audiences, narrative and activities Prevention of and preparation for storms Focusing only on the short term is a big problem not just in capitalist systems but also in the efficacy of campaigning. For example, the campaign to end the slave trade took decades, and some forms of slavery still exist today. The Chinese government has a 100 year plan. But many organizations, coalitions, and leaders only plan for three or four years, and some make long-term plans without clear steps to achieve them. So, we come to the third question of reflection: “What now? ” Once we understand how the system is changing (Chapter 20), and who and what is contributing to that change (Chapter 21), how do we plan our next steps to reach our Guiding Star and Near Star (Section 2)? We need to consider both: Long-termism: Predicting and planning for the future based on rapid and sustained developments Long-timism: Cultivating an attitude of care for the world beyond our lifetimes** It is important to consider what will be needed in seven generations from now. How many people, how much money, and how much effort will it take to change the system over this period? How can we keep the energy and commitment in our community to continue pushing for change? How can we inspire future activists and campaigners to keep the pressure on? As with all the tools we propose, you will get better results by doing this in community with people you work with and for, and outside with the element of this chapter. There are three stages to this process: Immerse ourselves - Imagine the people we care about and how the world changes for them, in the past and future. See the forest for the trees - Consider the long-term and short-term impacts across the system. Draw out new paths - Put ourselves in the others’ shoes to find ways to a better world. Footnote: **We have borrowed the methods here from a Long Time Project practice created by Ella Saltmarshe and Hannah Smith. For more on long-time thinking see their toolkit here: https://www.thelongtimeproject.org/s/Long-Time-Project_Long-Time-Tools.pdf Tool: human layers (longtime project) Tool: changing spectacles (the longtime project) Tool: future ripples

CONCLUSION where to from here? The humans of the last 100 years have: Created beautiful art, music, and culture. Reached the moon and new breakthroughs in science Had a more destructive impact on the rest of the planet than any other living beings in history - surpassed in driving species extinction by only such cataclysmic events on the scale of the meteor that led to the extinction of dinosaurs Until humans realize that we are all interconnected parts of nature, that we need to respect the relationships that bind us, and that how we communicate is what can truly shift change, our children's children will not live in the safe, vibrant, alive place that generations of our forebears have taken for granted. Common sense is that this is man vs nature. Uncommon sense is that we are nature. We need a new common sense. There are seeds growing: Agroecological economies like West Papua Indigenous-fronted global movements The perception of the Amazon rainforest as a treasure more than a commodity; Increasing interest in post-growth new economic models, Indigenous and complexity thinking Campaigners prioritizing movement strength and social justice alongside regular goals Countries granting citizenship and rights to rivers Charitable foundations handing out their money to civil society with no strings attached Societies of colonizers beginning to engage with their bloody legacies But it is not enough. The iterative approach of most corporate Environmental and Social Governance (ESG) efforts are iterative and unlikely to sufficiently catalyze system change. Political polarization, disinformation, deep-fakes and social media echo chambers are more dominant and widespread than ever, increasing the spread of conspiracy theories. We need a leap not a step forward. Governments and economies that value reciprocity more than growth, that grant and enforce collective rights for land and natural resources alongside people and intersectional environmental justice. And an understanding that together, every one of us has the power to make governments and companies take responsibility, make the short term changes to safeguard the planet we love and that are a part of. Every one of us can fight for change. Let’s start a revolution with uncommon sense. We hope this book helps you take that leap forward in whatever work that you do. We invite you to borrow what you like, ignore what you don’t, and share your views on what could be added or improved. We want to spark conversations in different languages and cultures about how we can contribute to making the world just a little bit better. Let’s make a more collective, sustainable future inevitable. “Action is the antidote to despair.” - Joan Baez “And what seemed almost impossible looking forward seems almost inevitable looking back.” ― Frances R. Westley, Getting to Maybe: How the World Is Changed “Every moment is an organizing opportunity, every person a potential activist, every minute a chance to change the world.” - Dolores Huerta

SECTION 1: N AVIGATION CHAPTER 14 - VALUES ARE BEDROCK A stakeholder will want to act if we appeal to their values. This framework helps us identify the values of key relationships and individuals that maintain the system’s equilibrium. It also guides us in framing our messages to influence these relationships and stakeholders. Just as the moon, winds, and ocean currents shape the seas, the ocean floor (bedrock) also plays a crucial role by affecting the density and temperature of the water above it. Values are the bedrock or foundation of our worldview. They shape our behaviors, the communities we join, and even the people and media that set the rules for our world. Value priorities are our preferred values. They serve as standards, guiding us in deciding what is good or worthwhile. They can change slowly, or quickly if in a crisis where for example someone’s value priority of altruism might shift in order to put food on the table for their family. As campaigners and communicators, our target audience may not always prioritize the same values as us. As one strategic comms expert offered: “Remember: We are not the audience.” Our task is to appeal to certain value priorities in certain situations. We can frame messages to bring different values to the fore, helping to strengthen our audience’s ability to experience and use those values in their own decision-making. “You can't get people to change, except in the direction that they want to change.” - Milton Rokeach / Shalom Schwarz concept: ten basic personal values Grahic page 114 “Feed what you want to grow, not what you want to fight - Building narrative power demands building new vocabularies. This requires making people familiar with your ideas rather than using old, harmful frames and tropes to get your point across.” - Thomas Coombes Grahic page 115 story: tool: finding bedrock Which values are driving your mission and driving the key stakeholders or relationships you need to influence? Are you appealing to the bigger than self values of community or autonomy? How might you tap into your audiences’ own bigger than self values? Part 1: Draw the values chart on the left. Write on Post-Its and place on the chart: Your organization or campaign’s mission; The key relationship(s) that you need to influence; The deep loop elements that maintain the system; The communities that are most trusted by the key relationships; The messengers most trusted by the key relationships. Discuss where the Post-Its are clustered and where there are gaps. What does this tell you about the gaps in values that you need to cross in order for your targets to act? Part 2: Now, how might you frame your message to appeal to the community and autonomy values in your audiences? How could you get them to think bigger than themselves and take action? As a group, draft messages that could activate this value priority in your audience, in line with your campaign mission. Consider how these messages could work within your existing campaign branding or messaging, advocacy and communications Seek opportunities to test these messages using the techniques in Chapter 15: Decisions are Learned and Chapter 16: Emotion is Oxygen. We have created a guide to framing messages for different relationships and audiences based on their values, adapted from the work of Liz Manne and Harmony Labs, based on Shalom Schwarz. This guide starts by laying out four areas of value priorities: Autonomy (I) : Openness to change (values like hedonism, stimulation, self-direction). These values prioritize seeking new experiences. Community (Us) : Self-transcendence (values like universalism, benevolence). These values prioritize ethics, new ideas, and connecting actions to values. Authority (Me) : Self-enhancement (values like achievement, power). These values prioritize personal success and influence. Order (We): Conservation (values like security, conformity, tradition). These values prioritize stability and self-esteem. To galvanize action for social or environmental change, we must appeal to the bigger than self intrinsic values of community (self-transcendence) and autonomy (openness to change). If we try to appeal just to self-interest or social status values, we are being incoherent with our mission, less effective and not building the changes we want to see. When combined with other tools discussed in this Section, we have a comprehensive way to target and frame all our messaging. Read more: Liz Manne and Harmony Labs’ Narrative Observatory on audiences, with examples from the USA: https://narrativeobservatory.org/audiences Shalom Schwarz identified ten basic personal values identifiable across multiple cultures: conformity, tradition, security, power, achievement, hedonism, stimulation, self-direction, universalism and benevolence. The Public Interest Research Centre (PIRC) created a values map to show where some of these values and their components are related. We recommend looking at the map to explore how close certain values are to each other. If a target audience prioritizes one value, it will be easiest to get them to prioritize another close to that value on the map. While helpful for considering groupings of values, we do not recommend it for targeted campaign planning purposes. Religion has proven to be a powerful lens, or worldview, through which people organize in Indonesia, particularly during elections like the 2019 Presidential Election. Indonesia is highly vulnerable to climate change, experiencing climate-related impacts and disasters annually, but there is not yet a unifying narrative around the drivers of and solutions to the climate crisis. With 1,340 ethnic groups and over 700 local languages, defining and identifying climate change the way that Western media and scientists do is challenging. It is liminal—existing between different beliefs and at the edges of understanding. While some local languages can describe climate phenomena as “pancaroba”, “pagebluk” or “paceklik,” there is no single term that encapsulates the scientific concept of climate change. In Indonesia, national climate audience research revealed that Indonesians place greater trust in local government figures and faith leaders over national government officials or NGOs. With 87% of the population being Sunni Muslim, Islam plays a significant role in shaping cultural and political dynamics. However, communicating the urgency of climate change in 2019 was challenging due to the diverse cultural and linguistic landscape, where Western scientific terminology wasn't easily understood or accepted. The MOSAIC (Muslims for Shared Actions on Climate Impact) campaign formed to mobilize Indonesians for climate action by aligning the message with their existing values and belief systems. The campaign needed to effectively engage the population by leveraging the values of Community (self-transcendence), prioritizing ethics, new ideas, and connecting actions to values. This approach emphasized the ethical responsibility of Muslims to protect the environment, connecting climate action with Islamic teachings on stewardship and benevolence. The campaign did this through: Ecosystem Mapping and Engagement: The campaign began with comprehensive ecosystem mapping to identify key players and understand their values, needs, and current actions. Significant Islamic organizations like Nahdlatul Ulama, Muhammadiyah, and the Indonesian Ulema Council (MUI) were identified as pivotal due to their influence and alignment with the values of community and benevolence. These organizations were engaged through dialogue and collaboration to promote environmental stewardship as a core Islamic value. Building Trust and Collaboration: Trust and collaboration were built through various convenings, including the organization of the "Kongres Umat Islam untuk Indonesia Lestari" (Muslims Congress for Sustainable Indonesia). Triggering the Community values priority: This congress emphasized the ethical responsibility of Muslims to care for the environment, framing climate action as a moral imperative rooted in Islamic values. The manifesto developed at the congress was endorsed by the vice president, a prominent Islamic leader, further reinforcing the message. Developing Initiatives: Following the congress, the campaign developed several initiatives aligned with the values of community and self-transcendence: Islamic Philanthropy for Climate Funding: "Sedekah Energy" and "Forest Waqf" to encourage community-based environmental action, linking charitable giving with sustainability efforts. Training and incubation projects: “Bengkel Hijrah Iklim” projects led by Islamic youth leaders to empower the next generation of environmental advocates. Knowledge Hub: A "Fiqht for Just Energy Transition" to legitimize and socialize climate action within the Islamic community, ensuring that actions are grounded in religious teachings. Social media platform: “Umat untuk Semesta” was a social media platform focused on the intersection of Islam and the environment, helping to spread the message of climate action as a communal and ethical responsibility. The campaign successfully: Engaged millions of Muslims across Indonesia by connecting climate action with Islamic values of benevolence and community. Gained recognition from media outlets like AP, The New York Times, and The Washington Post. Got endorsed by the Indonesian Vice President and the Great Imam of Istiqlal, the biggest mosque in Southeast Asia. Laid the foundation for a sustainable, values-driven climate movement. Sources: *The values map and wheel are both from: Holmes T., Blackmore, E., Hawkins, R. and Wakeford, T. (2011), The Common Cause Handbook: Public Interest Research Centre https://publicinterest.org.uk/download/values/Common%20Cause%20Handbook.pdf religious values & climate change, indonesia Concept: ten basic personal values Story: religious values and climate change, indonesia Finding bedrock

SECTION 2: E QUILIBRIUM CHAPTER 6 - RELATIONSHIPS ARE POWER Find the relationships not individuals that control how the system works. When we try to change someone's mindset, opinion, or behavior we must consider the power or powerlessness that person feels in themselves and the power expressed in the relationships they hold. Like the Guiding Star and Near Star represent your long-term vision and short-term objective, Relationship Constellations show us where power lies in a system. There are four forms of power : Visible Power: For example, a President has power over its citizens. Invisible Power: Traditional and religious leaders exert power over citizens and members of government. Hidden Power: Banks or corporations can exert power over a government if it is in debt or seeking approval. Social norms exert power over people, for example in some cultures the norm of taking one’s shoes off on entering a house. Systemic Power: Overarching systems and structures that underlie and enforce visible, invisible and hidden power.* “Power is the capacity of individuals or groups to determine who gets what, who does what, who decides what, and who sets the agenda.” - Srilatha Batliwala, quoting and expanding on the definition of power by Aruna Rao and David Kelleher. story: “The rhythm of the work was set by the sound of the air hammers. As long as the hammers kept going, the inmates would work, so I shut the compressors off. The hammers stopped and everyone quit working”. - Yevgeny Griciak, prisoner, Camp No. 4. tool: relationship constellations Levels : Draw 5 concentric circles on your page and label them according to the 5 system levels, starting with "Why" in the center and working outwards. Elements : Write on a Post-It note every key element that keeps the system in place and stops a better system from growing, including both tangible (institutions, products, people) and intangible (values, norms) elements. Reuse sticky notes from Section 1 exercises if needed. Relationship constellations : Draw lines with arrows between elements that have important relationships. More than one element can be connected, and connections can span different system levels. Determine if this power is visible, invisible, or hidden. Label them as commensalist (C), mutualist (M), or parasitic (P). Consider : Identify the critical relationships or transactions maintaining the system's health. Are they commensalist, parasitic, or mutualist? Who is winning and losing, and what is the impact on them and others? Stars : Review the guiding and near star you established for the system. Are they correct? Use this chart to better understand and influence the relationships that control the system. Powerlessness is not always expressed and so it is harder to spot than power. There are four expressions of power: Power over: Institutions hold control over individuals. The weather has power over us. Power to: The ability of someone or something to do something. Power with: Mutual support and collaboration with others. Power within: The capacity to imagine and have hope. It is important to acknowledge that many people feel powerless within themselves to effect change, and a responsibility of many campaigners is to find ways to support people to build their own power and agency. Our relationships with people and the wider world define us and give us power but also identity. The Tanganekald people of South Australia had more than twenty pronouns that were ungendered but that expressed people’s relationship with each other.* There are three types of system relationships which express power: Commensalist: One benefits, and the other is unaffected. This is the power to do something. For example, the golden jackal follows a tiger to scavenge off its discarded kills; barbed seeds travel on human clothing; gut bacteria living in our digestive system. Mutualist: Both benefit. This is power with others. For example, clownfish and anemones help each other. Clownfish consume parasites and provide nutrients to anemones, which in turn shield the fish from predators. Social norms can cultivate politeness among people. Parasitic: One benefits, and the other is harmed. This is an expression of power over others. For example, fleas or tapeworms on a host. These types of relationships can exist among both tangible (people, institutions) and intangible (values, norms) parts of a system. These relationships can also enable (strengthen) or inhibit (weaken) others across the system. Normally, to plan a campaign we might single out individual targets by using a Power Map** or Forcefield Analysis to identify key players in a system. However, to shift a system more effectively, we recommend using a Constellation Chart to plot the power, relationships and relationship types across the system levels. Sources: *For a more detailed explanation of power, see the Just Associates Guide to Power https://justassociates.org/big-ideas/power1/ **https://aboriginallivinglanguages.sa.gov.au/lesson/lesson-twelve-pronouns-part-2/ ***Power mapping to design a winning campaign strategy: https://commonslibrary.org/power-mapping-to-design-a-winning-campaign-strategy/ ****Forcefield analysis https://www.mindtools.com/a23ewmr/force-field-analysis In 1953, prisoners in the Norillag labor camp in Norilsk, Russia, had been enduring extremely harsh conditions. This was a p arasitic relationship : the Russian state benefited from their hard labor. They worked 12-hour days in freezing temperatures by mining, making cement, and building roads and railway infrastructure. Many were political prisoners hoping for amnesty after Russian leader Joseph Stalin's death. However, the government only offered amnesty to criminal prisoners, leading to frustration and anger. The prisoners aimed to improve their living and working conditions and gain the attention of higher authorities in Moscow by finding a way to leverage the relationships that set the rules for their imprisonment; the relationship between the public, media and state, and the relationships through which information was communicated: 1. Organizing and Communicating across Camps: Mutualist relationships at the “What” level: Spreading the Word: After a guard killed two political prisoners, inmates in Camp No. 5 used a flag communication system to alert other camps. Starting the Strike: Yevgeny Griciak in Camp No. 4 initiated a strike by shutting down air compressors, halting work. 2. Gaining Support from the public outside - Commensalist relationships at the “Where” level: Demonstrating Unity: 5,000 prisoners refused to work, endured a three-day siege, and displayed a large sign saying “We Are Being Killed and Starved” to draw attention from the town’s people, who ultimately benefited from the work of the prisoners. Expanding the Strike: By 5 June, prisoners in six camps joined the strike, totaling 16,379 strikers. They organized committees, elected leaders, and united nationalities including Ukrainians, Estonians, Latvians and Lithuanians within the camps. 3. Reaching Power-Holders: Contacting rulemakers in Parasitic relationships via the “Where” and “Who” levels Using gender equality to provoke a reaction: Women prisoners dug graves outside in the ground and protested, knowing that guards would want to shoot them but could not. Reaching Out to Authorities: Prisoners demanded to negotiate with representatives from Moscow, inspired by similar tactics in other uprisings. Publicizing the Revolt: Prisoners used creative methods, like leaflets tied to kites, to inform the townspeople and authorities in Moscow about their situation. They set the cords of the kites on fire, so when these burnt out over the city, the messages fell down to the ground where they could be read. Griciak said that this action was partly responsible for getting the message out to Moscow. 4. Negotiating and Persisting: Shifting relationships from parasitic to mutualist (Moscow and the prison authority; and the prison and the prisoners) at the “Who” level Engaging with Moscow Representatives: A special commission from Moscow traveled to Norillag and met with prisoners on 6 June. Prisoners submitted their demands, including shorter workdays, the transfer of disabled prisoners and better communication with families. Continuing the Strike: Despite violent suppression and the banishment of some leaders among the rebels, the prison granted some concessions. Then prisoners resumed their strike when promises were not fully met. Despite initial resistance and violent suppression, the prisoners considered it a success due to the significant improvements and recognition they gained. Read more : https://nvdatabase.swarthmore.edu/content/norillag-prisoners-strike-better-conditions-norilsk-uprising-1953 the beginning of the end of the gulag, russia Story: the beginning of the end of the gulag, russia Tool: relationship constellations

SECTION 1: E NERGY CHAPTER 22 - REFLECTION IS ACTION Review changes across the rest of the system before focusing on your own area. We make sense of the changing world through stories. Aboriginal peoples speak of “yarning,” the act of coming together with others to talk and allow ideas to surface and evolve. Paulo Freire talked about praxis, or action-reflection: the need for people to engage in a constant cycle of action and reflection in order to understand and change their social reality.* We propose that we recognise reflection as a form of action. We need to make that act of respectful reflection with others a part of our everyday lives. “Leaders who… insist on imposing their decisions, do not organize the people - they manipulate them. They do not liberate, nor are they liberated: they oppress.” - Paulo Freire “The past is not a fixed entity, but a constantly shifting story we tell ourselves.” - Adam Curtis story: tool: campfire dashboard The first question of reflection is “What?” In other words, what do we evaluate? Common reflection methods include monitoring, evaluation, or impact assessment to see if goals were met. It is important to measure what matters, not just what's easy. An uncommon sense approach begins by looking at if and how the system changed, in terms of shifts in power, changes in narrative, and changes to its Near Star, Guiding Star and deep loop. This helps us see changes we might not have noticed and informs our plans. Throughout this book, we have proposed indicators to help you monitor your campaign as it unfolds: The boundaries of the System and its contents The relationships and deep loop giving the System its Equilibrium The target stakeholders and our Navigation to reach and activate them The Storms we may encounter These are tangible elements of the system that you can measure. In this chapter we share with you a campfire dashboard tool for group work to understand changes in the system. Keep this process simple and easy to revisit. When you review these indicators we recommend you summarize and consider the findings using four principles of emergent learning***: Raw data (research, numbers) and filtered data (opinions, stories and experiences) Insights - making sense of that data Hypotheses - what we believe may help us based on the above Opportunities - Events, meetings or times coming up that provide an opportunity to test our thinking Each principle helps us to separate out data from insights, insights from hypotheses, and identify opportunities for improvement. Footnote Sources: *Pedagogy of the Oppressed ***Adapted from Four Quadrant Partners work on Emergent Learning Tables, http://www.pointk.org/resources/files/Introduction_to_Emergent_Learning_Tables.pdf Breakthrough, an India and US-based human rights organization, launched the Bell Bajao (Ring the Bell) campaign to call on men and boys across India to take a stand against domestic violence by performing a simple bystander intervention – ringing the doorbell when they witnessed domestic violence taking place. The campaign had the following objectives: Make the issue part of mainstream conversation Increase knowledge about and change community attitudes towards domestic violence and towards HIV-positive women Alter individual behavior Reflection on past campaigns to shape the Bell Bajao campaign: In previous campaigns, men were featured mainly as perpetrators of violence. Bell Bajao sought to activate solution-focused values and priorities by highlighting mens’ roles as thought leaders, partners and an integral part of the solution to reduce violence Previous campaign evaluations found that Breakthrough’s nuanced messaging (combining HIV/AIDS and Violence Against Women) was too complex to be absorbed by mass audiences. This time, the organization used a broad and easily understood message about domestic violence, making other nuances secondary Breakthrough did further research including through a baseline survey of public attitudes towards domestic violence. This found that: people rarely took action when they noticed domestic violence occurring; that both men and women equally were likely to take action ; while men tended to take the lead in intervening if they did take action. This helped refine the campaign messaging even more, resulting finally in the simple, direct message ‘Bring domestic violence to a halt. Ring the Bell’, with men and boys being the key audience Monitoring and Evaluation of the Bell Bajao campaign Breakthrough did further reflection and identified: 1.Changes at system levels: After two years, the campaign was not able to assess behavior changes and the impact on women (What level) but did gather information on changes in knowledge and attitudes shared. How level (community infrastructure, delays and loops): Many interviewees were surprised that a person could interrupt domestic violence “giving any trivial reason” Where level (information flows): The campaign reached out through both media and education networks in one district, and just through media in another: In the first district awareness of the Domestic Violence Act rose from an average of 3% to 21% In the second district, awareness of the Domestic Violence Act rose from an average of 3% to 8% Who level (the rules and who shapes them): It was unclear if significant changes took place in the knowledge, attitudes and behavior of among community leaders and opinion shapers specifically as there was no in-depth study of their opinions Why level (the mindset): Emergent data from the opinions given by respondents: Changed attitudes: A marked decrease (9%) in respondents who felt that women should remain silent when experiencing domestic violence. An increase (90%) in respondents who felt that women should take legal action. A decrease in respondents suggesting that women just live with it or commit suicide. Interviewees commonly shared that “one should make efforts to stop domestic violence”. Changed knowledge and attitudes: Interviewees most commonly shared what they learned from the television ads was that “one can stop domestic violence without saying anything to the aggressor.” Before the campaign, research found narrow understanding of domestic violence, primarily associating it with dowry-related harassment, while other forms like emotional, economic, and sexual abuse were less recognized. After the campaign, research found that a significantly higher proportion of respondents reported understanding that emotional abuse, threats, economic deprivation and sexual abuse are also forms of domestic violence. After the campaign, a significantly lower proportion of respondents identified domestic violence as dowry-related harassment. 2. Changes in Relationships and Deep Loops Giving the System Its Equilibrium Pre-campaign research suggested that: Social norms perpetuated a harmful loop of silence and inaction towards domestic violence. A significant proportion of the population believed that domestic violence was a private matter, leading to widespread non-intervention. Post-campaign evaluation found: A positive change in opinions: in the district reached by media and education networks, respondents said they were more likely to report domestic violence (47%), especially amongst female respondents (69%). 3. Changes in Target Stakeholders and Navigation to reach and activate them Time : The evaluation found that at least two to three years of sustained effort is needed for community mobilization. It is possible to build knowledge and skills more quickly, but behavior and attitudinal change requires time. Navigation : The campaign needed to keep innovating to maintain excitement - such as through video vans, which were popular with youth. This added to the existing output through media, schools, television, radio and print ads. The campaign learned to do outreach via schools rather than just media, to have the most sustained impact on shifted knowledge and attitudes. 4. Changes during and following challenges and opportunities Raw Data: Challenges included financial constraints during the 2009 economic downturn, language diversity across India requiring translations, and community skepticism towards Breakthrough as an external organization. Insights : These challenges provided insights into the need for adaptable, resource-efficient strategies. For example, the difficulty in securing free airtime led to a greater emphasis on grassroots mobilization and digital engagement. Hypotheses : The campaign hypothesized that despite financial and logistical challenges, sustained community engagement, coupled with strategic media placement, could still drive significant change. Opportunities : These challenges also created opportunities for innovation like a greater focus on digital platforms to reach a wider audience during the economic downturn. Breakthrough adapted by intensifying efforts in community-driven events, video van tours, and integrating messages into popular culture, ensuring continuous engagement despite limited resources. Read more: https://www.endvawnow.org/uploads/browser/files/bell_bajao_case_study_english.pdf bell bajao campaign, india 2008-2011 Story: Bell bajao campaign, india, 2008-2011 Tool: Campfire dashboard Part 1 Step 1 : Recreate your system chart and deep loop from Sections 1 or 2 as a five-layered campfire shape, and add via Post-Its the key relationships at each level. Step 2: Write any shifts in the system onto Post-Its and stick them on the left side of the diagram. Step 3: Draw thick lines between Post-Its that have contributed significantly to each other in a positive or negative way. Step 4: Review the chart. What does this tell you about how your campaign is doing? Step 5: What are the strongest deep loops? Are they stabilizing / stagnating / vicious / virtuous? What does this tell you about where you need to focus your efforts? What are any unintended consequences for other parts of the system, e.g. civil society or the dominant narrative? Go deeper : You could use red, orange and green post-its to give a traffic-light ranking to the significance of each change. The chart should then give a color-coded sense of how the system change is progressing. For example: Add a positive system boundary shift (e.g. your team is being consulted by your government) to a yellow Post-It and the System section Add a powerful relationship that has been destabilized, to a green Post-It, and stick in the Equilibrium section Add a Storm that set you back to a pink Post-It in the Storms section Part 2 Summarize your findings under four headings: Raw data (research, numbers) and filtered data (opinions, stories and experiences) Insights - opinions of that data Hypotheses - what we believe may help us based on the above Opportunities - Events, meetings or times coming up that provide an opportunity to test our thinking What are the most significant changes to the system and at which levels? What can you celebrate? What can you improve on?

SECTION 3: N AVIGATION introduction Purpose : Learn how to navigate narratives, reach and activate people within the system. Guide : Read this before you choose a strategy. Polynesians crossed the ocean by using the relative positions of sun, moon, stars and waves, rather than just using strength or willpower. Similarly, to change a system we need to understand how to reach and activate people, rather than relying on fixed tactics. For that reason, plan your communications approach before deciding on tactics. This Section uses a water chart to help us plan how to influence others. The Chapters are: Narrative is water: To activate stakeholders, understand the narrative flows in the system, where counter-narratives exist, and how to use them. Needs are motives: Every creature on the water has a reason for its direction. Identify the needs and motivations of each stakeholder to plan how you will shift the system. Networks are currents: Communities and groups are currents that help people connect and belong. A strong network moving in a new direction will carry its members further. Values are bedrock: Our values define our worldview and rarely change unless we experience a life-altering event or as our life stage changes. To activate someone, frame your message to resonate with their values. The messenger is the message: Swells are recurring currents in the ocean. In a system, swells are the media or people we listen to most. A swell that consistently communicates a message aligned with someone's values is most likely to be heard. Decisions are learned: People develop mental shortcuts and biases that help them make decisions. Frame your message to trigger specific shortcuts and biases. Emotion is oxygen: Human emotion is essential for decision-making. Every counter-narrative needs a powerful idea or metaphor to activate others. section summary Key Takeaway Profile the narrative context, key audiences and how to reach and activate them before you develop your tactics. Key Questions What are the dominant narrative and signs of counter-narrative flowing through the system? Which elements of that counter-narrative can you cultivate? What are the needs and motives of the relationships you need to influence, and of the people you need to activate? Which are the strongest communities or networks that your targets are a part of? Who are the most influential members of that community that need to adopt behaviors to influence your target? Who are the messengers that your target relies upon for information? How can you pitch to these messengers? What is the set of values that you need to frame your message to convince each target? Which mental shortcuts and biases will you trigger to convince each stakeholder to act? How will you use emotion throughout your communications to get your audience at each stage to act? Key Tool(s) Ocean chart to understand narratives

SECTION 1: S YSTEM CHAPTER 4 - AUTONOMY IS MYTH Every part of a system depends on other parts of the same system, and sometimes on other systems. We are influenced by many interdependent, tangible and intangible systems, from people and institutions to values and norms. Every ecosystem has at least one keystone species - an organism that is critical to the survival of others in the ecosystem, and to keeping the system in balance. Its removal can cause irreparable damage. This is exactly what happened with the decline of sea otters off the coast of Alaska. In the 1990s the hunting of whales and sea lions removed two primary food sources for local orcas. When the orcas then began to increase their hunting of sea otters, the sea otter population dropped dramatically, causing sea urchins to reproduce unchecked. The urchins killed off the huge underwater kelp forests which normally provided food and shelter for thousands of ocean species.* Multiple ecosystems work with each other all the time. Perhaps the best known example is of the different systems and relationships connected to a child: the family (parents and siblings), the school (teachers), the state (funding for education types), culture and class (norms and attitudes).** So to understand how to influence one system, we need to be aware of the others that interact with it. In Chapter 1 we showed how to use a soil chart to map a single system. In this Chapter we propose extending this soil chart to see how this system is interacting with and influencing others. We look at dependencies, tipping points (to consider the key moments that could kickstart change) and consequences (to see what might happen if we increased or decreased certain factors at different levels). story: bolivia's water war tool: systems triggers & consequences Take your soil chart from Chapter 3. Rewind 50 years and fast forward 100 years. When you do this, ask yourself: What does the system look like? Does it need to change? When or where are the tipping points where change could happen, e.g. rainforest turning to savannah? What are the consequences? What are the dependencies across these system levels? Who or what is directly affected, e.g. natural resources, keystone species, socioeconomic groups, cultural beliefs? Take your time and feel free to step up and down through the levels. Challenge your assumptions about why this system works in these different places. In 1999, Bolivia, under pressure from the World Bank, privatized the water system in Cochabamba, a city of 800,000 people. The government handed control to a foreign company, Aguas del Tunari, which led to severe price hikes and the takeover of local water systems, creating widespread discontent. Campaigners sought to stop the privatization, reverse the water price hikes, and protect the local water systems. They did this in the following ways: Connecting Systems and Stakeholders: Local Response: Initially, local professionals and small-scale farmers raised concerns but were ignored. However, as the impact spread, various groups including water cooperatives, neighborhood associations, labor unions, and factory workers joined forces. Forming a Coalition: These groups formed La Coordinadora, led by union activist Óscar Olivera, uniting diverse stakeholders to fight against the privatization. Shutdown of the country: Public Mobilizations: La Coordinadora organized mass protests and road blockades, involving urban and rural workers, students, and ordinary citizens. They demanded the government end the contract with Aguas del Tunari, repeal the new water law, and reverse the price hikes. The protests reached a peak in April 2000 with widespread demonstrations and blockades. Symbolic Actions and Solidarity: Protesters used symbolic actions like burning unpaid water bills and organizing non-violent demonstrations, which gathered widespread support and media attention. Even as protests sometimes faced police violence, the diverse participation from all parts of society showed strong unity against the privatization - centering the message of the fundamental right to water for human life. Media and Global Attention: International Awareness: News of the protests and the involvement of Bechtel (a major corporation) spread globally through media and internet campaigns, drawing international attention and support. The government underestimated how well interconnected local, regional and national actors across the Who and How levels could combine to effectively shut down the country’s infrastructure and economy. The government eventually agreed to revoke Aguas del Tunari's contract and return control of the water system to public hands. The government also modified the water law to protect local water systems and ensure public consultation on rates. Footnotes: *https://www.rewildingbritain.org.uk/reintroductions-key-species/keystone-species-and-trophic-cascades **Gerald Zaltzman, https://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/the-subconscious-mind-of-the-consumer-and-how-to-reach-it **Bronfenbrenner’s Ecological Systems Theory https://www.simplypsychology.org/bronfenbrenner.html#The-Five-Ecological-Systems Story: Bolivia's water war Tool: Systems triggers and consequences “Pull a thread here and you’ll find it’s attached to the rest of the world.” - Nadeem Aslam

SECTION 2: E QUILIBRIUM CHAPTER 5 - SYSTEMS DO NOT DIE Change the system’s vision to rebalance it. Campaigners often rush towards their goals, not realizing it is a long journey. Citizens vote for new leaders, expecting big changes, but often see little improvement in their lives as new officials grapple with the same old system. We too often look in the wrong place to find our way to system change. We recommend setting a Guiding Star as a vision or aim for the system we are trying to change. A Guiding Star means that a healthy system is in place, with the why, who, what, and how in place that helps maintain itself. An example of a Guiding Star for a society is a government that citizens trust and in enacting this trust they vote at general elections - showing their support for structures like the rule of law. The system would be at risk if many citizens rebelled against these structures. Strategies to achieve a Guiding Star should address a scarcity mindset and promote empathy and collective values. “The civil rights movement tended to be focused on integration, but there were those who said, "We don't want to assimilate into a sinking ship, so let's change the ship altogether." - 2014 interview in Conversations with Angela Davis Edited by Sharon Lynette Jones (2021) (Referring to the emergence of the Black Panther Party) story: “We… hereby decide to build a new form of public coexistence, in diversity and in harmony with nature, to achieve the good way of living.” - Constitution of Ecuador, 2008 story: the salt march, india, 1930 tool: star setting We recommend setting a Near Star as a 5-10 year major outcome that shows us we are on track to achieve our Guiding Star or vision. This is a major step towards achieving your vision. A Near Star means that conditions for a healthy system are in place. An example of a Near Star is an easy voting process. The system would become unstable if this process was not in place. Campaigners are used to setting a vision and then Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic, and Time-bound (SMART) goals. This approach builds from this foundation, adapting it for a systems mindset. First, it is important to understand that systems do not die. Every system already has a Guiding Star showing it is in good health, and a Near Star showing what needs to happen for it to remain healthy. So, start by understanding how the system(s) operate today and then determine how you would like to see them evolve - rather than setting visions and SMART goals assuming a static starting point and a blank page. The tool in this Chapter shows how to identify the existing Guiding Star and Near Star for the system, and how to identify new stars to replace them. For much of the 20th century Bolivia and Ecuador adopted economic policies based on advice from Washington, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). By the mid-2000s, the extraction and sale of their natural resources by multinational companies had left many Bolivians and Ecuadorians in poverty. Progressive movements in each country brought together coalitions representing Indigenous movements and left-leaning white working-class people. These movements recognized the stability in community that Indigenous peoples had established long before country borders were drawn. This could be a new Guiding Star to ensure their societies and environments could thrive. This focus on the collective rather than the individual was rooted in the Quechua vision of “sumac kawsay,” meaning “the fullness of life, living in community and harmony with other people and nature.” The Quechua practiced their stewardship of nature, by only taking what they needed from their environment, focussing on helping nature to stay in balance. Evo Morales, an Indigenous leader in Bolivia, and Rafael Correa, a middle-class intellectual in Ecuador, won elections based on the idea that they would restrict the extraction of natural resources and reinvest a large portion of the profits to fight poverty and inequality. In 2008, Ecuador established the Guiding Star of “buen vivir” (a Spanish phrase, based on sumac kawsay) as a cornerstone of its constitution. In 2011, Bolivia passed the Law of Mother Nature, the world’s first national legislation to bestow rights to the natural world. The reforms changed the idea of development, prioritizing “ecological balance over relentless growth.”* Were systems fully and effectively reformed based on these new why guiding stars? No. But it is still relevant to consider as an example of one key step towards enacting system change Sources (formal sourcing): *Rapid Transition Alliance: https://rapidtransition.org/stories/the-rights-of-nature-in-bolivia-and-ecuador/ Guardian article: https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/blog/buen-vivir-philosophy-south-america-eduardo-gudynas Under British colonial rule, in 1930 India was gripped by a growing demand for independence. Mahatma Gandhi, the leader of the Indian independence movement, decided to challenge the British monopoly on salt production, which forced Indians to buy salt exclusively from the government. Gandhi’s Near Star was not just an objective to defy the salt law, but to use this act as a catalyst to unite the Indian population in a mass movement against British imperialism. His Guiding Star was to gain India's independence through nonviolent civil disobedience, rather than merely achieving minor policy changes. He took learnings from other Indians who had practiced ‘Satyagraha’ - to resist by non-violent non-cooperation with oppression. “For Gandhi, satyagraha, the force of truth, was the force not to cooperate with unjust laws that called for a ‘no’ from our deepest conscience”. Gandhi organized the Salt March, a 240-mile trek to the Arabian Sea, where he symbolically broke the salt laws by making salt from seawater. This act of defiance sparked widespread civil disobedience across India, leading to the arrest of over 100,000 people. The campaign was able to bring the British to the negotiating table, resulting in the 1931 Gandhi-Irwin Pact, but this seemed to deliver limited concessions. Many within the Indian National Congress felt disillusioned, believing that Gandhi had settled for too little—only minor exceptions to the salt law and the release of some political prisoners. Although the immediate gains from the Salt March appeared modest, Gandhi saw the bigger picture and stayed true to his long-term aim. He understood that the symbolic victory of forcing the British to negotiate with an Indian leader on equal terms was a significant moral and strategic win. This shifted public opinion and built the capacity of the Indian independence movement for future struggles. The campaign also demonstrated the power of nonviolent resistance, inspiring mass mobilizations that would eventually lead to India's independence. Gandhi's ability to focus on his Guiding Star, rather than getting sidetracked by the immediate, lesser objectives, ultimately helped dismantle British imperial rule in India. Read more: Shiva, V. (2021). Satyagraha: The Highest Practise of Democracy and Freedom . Social Change, 51(1), 80-91. Sharma, A. (2015) Gandhi’s Non-Violent “Raid” During the Salt March . buen vivir, bolivia and ecuador Story: Buen Vivir, Bolivia and Ecuador Story: the salt march, india Tool: star setting Take a piece of paper and plot the guiding star and near star of the system you want to change in the top left-hand corner. Then plot your campaign's guiding star and near star in the top right. Both need to be inspiring, meaningful, and compelling. As Donella Meadows says: “Good systems goals - the guiding stars and near stars of the world, the system we want - require: Going for the good of the whole Expand time horizons Expand thought horizons Expand the boundaries of caring Celebrate complexity

SECTION 1: N AVIGATION CHAPTER 15 - DECISIONS ARE LEARNED Triggering the right mental shortcuts and biases can make anyone take a decision. We are all decision-makers, but none of us are 100% rational. On average we make more than 35,000 decisions every day.* Our brains use thinking styles and develop mental shortcuts and biases to reduce the amount of deep thinking we do and to make our lives livable. These become habits that we live by: Thinking styles: Thinking fast (instinctive, emotional) and thinking slow (more deliberative and more logical).* Our aim in influencing is to trigger our target to take a fast decision, and minimize slow thinking including weighing up the cost-benefit or probabilities around decisions and actions.** Mental shortcuts: We develop mental shortcuts to reduce complexity and make decisions quickly. They are subject to internal factors (emotions, intuition, memory related to the decision), and external factors (type of choices available, competing objectives, culture around the decision). Bias: An illogical discrimination between two pieces of data. We also learn thinking styles, shortcuts and biases from family, friends, colleagues and even enemies. Polynesian navigators passed down the wisdom to track the rise, fall and location of the sun and stars. They also learned to take land-dwelling birds with them on ocean journeys. The navigator would release the birds if they believed they were near land. If the bird did not return, the navigator knew that land was close. From a systems perspective, it is most impactful to shift a narrative that will influence thousands of small decisions. However every action to shift that narrative requires us to trigger the mental shortcuts and biases already in place with those who have power over those narratives. It is far easier to trigger an audience’s existing mental shortcuts and biases in order to shift their habits, rather than overwhelm them with hard choices. We can influence someone to pass on a message the way we want by understanding their feeling, thinking and acting habits. This Chapter shares how people make decisions so we can identify how to get them to do the actions aligned with our theory of change. You may find yourself questioning which key stakeholders should really be the target of the campaign. Footnotes: *Daniel Kahnemann explains these two forms of thinking (Systems 1 and Systems 2). Kahneman, Daniel “Thinking Fast and Slow,” 2011. ** Weighing up cost-benefit and probabilities is called Bayesian decision-making. “We do not see things as they are, we see them as we are.” - Anaïs Nin concept: story: In the early 1990s, Bogotá was a city paralyzed by corruption, chaos, and dangerous traffic conditions. Antanas Mockus, the newly elected mayor, faced the challenge of transforming this dysfunctional system. Mockus could see that the city was stuck in a vicious loop of corruption, impunity and mistrust. Public trust in the corrupt traffic police force was low - when traffic police attempted to enforce the law, the public disobeyed, creating more chaos on the road. So the Mayor removed the existing traffic police from the system, and added a virtuous loop of collective accountability and civic engagement: Mockus disbanded the entire traffic police force. He offered to rehire the officers—but as mimes, who would use humor and social pressure rather than coercion to influence driver behavior. He empowered Bogota citizens by distributing 350,000 “thumbs-up/thumbs-down” cards, enabling them to express approval or disapproval of traffic behavior directly. The mimes, through their non-verbal communication, highlighted the absurdity of traffic violations, encouraging drivers and pedestrians to follow rules not out of fear, but out of a shared sense of responsibility. Mockus cleverly triggered fast thinking, leveraging mental shortcuts and biases to reshape behavior and reduce traffic problems: Affect (Emotion): Mockus used humor to engage the public emotionally. By replacing corrupt police officers with mimes who used playful gestures to enforce traffic rules, he tapped into the positive emotions of surprise and amusement, making people more receptive to following rules. Authority: Although unconventional, the mimes became perceived as figures of authority. Their presence and antics were a novel way of reinforcing traffic rules without traditional enforcement, which the public had lost trust in. Mockus also empowered citizens by giving them “thumbs-up/thumbs-down” cards, making them feel authoritative in judging traffic behavior. Availability and Familiarity: Mockus capitalized on what was familiar and memorable. Traffic violations, once ignored, became absurdly visible through the mimes' exaggerated reactions, making them unforgettable. The citizens’ cards, readily available in their hands, allowed immediate feedback, embedding the new behavior in daily routines. Aversion to Loss: Mockus understood that people are more motivated by the fear of loss than the prospect of gain. By removing the corrupt police force and replacing them with mimes, he reduced the perceived "loss" of being unfairly treated or fined, encouraging compliance. Anchoring: The first interaction with the mimes, who ridiculed violations in a light-hearted manner, became the anchor for future behavior. This initial experience set a new standard for how traffic rules were perceived and followed. Similarity and Safety: The mimes represented something non-threatening and relatable—people in the community enforcing rules in a safe and humorous way. Citizens felt safer complying with these figures rather than with corrupt police officers. By utilizing these mental shortcuts and biases, Mockus effectively bypassed the need for slow, deliberative thinking. Instead, he steered the public towards quick, instinctive decisions that led to safer, more cooperative behavior on Bogotá’s streets. His strategy was highly successful, reducing traffic fatalities by over 50% and transforming the culture of the city’s streets from one of lawlessness to one of mutual respect and shared responsibility. Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/17/opinion/the-art-of-changing-a-city.html Humans tend to use two thinking styles: Fast (System 1): Instinctive, emotional. Our influencing should steer targets towards this Slow (System 2): Deliberative, logical. Our influencing should minimize this. Slow thinking requires rational checks. We weigh up cost-benefits (what do we have to give up, and what do we gain) and probabilities (how likely is something to happen). Skilled strategic communicators deliberately trigger mental shortcuts and biases in an audience to guide them toward fast or slow noticing, consideration and decision. In our modern lives most of us are flooded with information. As a first step, therefore, a communication must break through the noise and be noticed (repeatedly). Mental shortcuts that guide noticing: Allocation of attention: Spread, volume, repetition by familiar channels, sense of surprise all increase the likelihood of attention. Urgency: Urgent rather than important threats, events, or opportunities. Proximity: Relevance to someone’s family, community, work, hobbies or life priorities. Mental shortcuts that guide consideration: Angle: The framing - the context and perspective through which information is presented. Affect: Information that inspires strong positive or negative emotions. Availability: The information already in your memory or experience. Anchoring: The first information accessed on the subject. Authority: Communication from a trusted or authoritative channel and messenger. Aversion to loss: The perceived risk of loss (pain is twice as powerful as gain).* Average: Likelihood of an event or fact based on a preconceived notion or memory. Biases that guide consideration: Similarity: The preference towards what is similar to that which you are used to. Expedience (confirmation bias): People prefer information that confirms their values and does not overly challenge their understanding of the world. Experience: Preferring what we have experienced in the past. Distance: Preferring what is close to them physically or recently. Safety: Preferring what seems safest to them or what has already been proven to be safe. Biases that guide decision-making: Optimism: The overestimation of your abilities. Illusion of control: The overestimate of your control over events. When defining and delivering a communications strategy for influencing a decision maker or target audience, consider how to share the framing, stories, and messages to take advantage of these mental shortcuts. If you study great communicators and communication materials - be they emails, TikTok posts, elected officials speeches, or issue campaigns - you will see that these are clearly at use. For example, communications might be from an influential messenger (Authority) sharing an emotional powerful story (Affect) about a scary risk (Aversion to Loss) and a very accessible familiar solution (Familiarity). How can you shape your communications strategy to do the same? Where possible you may consider how to reach your target audience in a position where they need fast thinking, and trigger the mental shortcuts and biases that will appeal to them and move them to do what we want. At the same time, it is however important that we check our own logic before we engage them, so we avoid triggering unconscious bias that is culturally insensitive. Further reading: For more on the five SEEDS of bias see the NeuroLeadership Institute: https://neuroleadership.com/your-brain-at-work/seeds-model-biases-affect-decision-making/ For a more complex take on influencing behaviors, see the Behavioural Insights Group report here . replacing cops with mimes, colombia thinking styles, rational checks, mental shortcuts & biases Concept: thinking styles, rational checks, mental shortcuts and biases Story: Replacing cops with memes, colombia Tool: navigation and persuasion tool: navigation & persuasion Once you have read through the rest of this Navigation Section, you can bring your strategy for reach and communications together. Use the flowchart here as a guide. Route : One by one, select the most powerful decision-makers in the system and plot the route to reach them. It is likely that there will be more than one decision-maker and more than one route to reach them. It is also likely that some routes will need re-planning. Remember, each person on that route is also a decision-maker. For each decision-maker on that route, consider: Outcome: Decide on what you want the decision-maker to do. Narrative: How might you appeal to the existing narrative in the system while cultivating your own counter-narrative? Focus on a consistent topline deep narrative, while allowing different people to tell stories in varied ways. This approach will help shift the narrative more effectively. Motives: What are the needs and motives of that decision-maker we need to appeal to? Network: What networks, groups or communities do they draw value and belonging from? How can your message resonate with them so that they are likely to adopt it? Messengers: Which media and other messengers does the decision-maker most trust? What does your message need to say in order for that messenger to pass it on? Values: Which of the four values frames will most likely get the decision-maker to act? Mental shortcuts and biases: Which mental shortcuts and biases will ensure the decision-maker acts quickly? Decision: Are we sure the decision-maker’s action will be the one we want? Emergence: How might our actions and those of the network, messengers and the final decision-maker play out in the system? What else might emerge that we need to consider? Could the decision create a new kind of bias that we need to consider?